Magic Monies - 10/14/16

Not a great deal to talk about today. Few cards from Kaladesh spiking, but we need to talk about how and why this is happening.

Weekly Risers

[mtg_card]Electrostatic Pummeler[/mtg_card]  Kaladesh$4.74$0.58717.20%
Electrostatic Pummeler  KaladeshX$12.33$1.91545.60%
[mtg_card]Metallurgic Summonings[/mtg_card]  Kaladesh$11.50$2.18427.50%
Metallurgic Summonings  KaladeshX$19.99$8.30140.80%
[mtg_card]Panharmonicon[/mtg_card]  Kaladesh$6.47$2.76134.40%
[mtg_card]Leovold, Emissary of Trest[/mtg_card]  Conspiracy: Take the Crown$23.10$13.6669.10%
[mtg_card]All Hallow's Eve[/mtg_card] (*)  Legends$120.00$80.0050.00%
[mtg_card]Selfless Spirit[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$6.46$4.5841.10%
[mtg_card]City of Brass[/mtg_card]  Arabian Nights$140.78$100.2140.50%
[mtg_card]Statecraft[/mtg_card]  Mercadian Masques$3.15$2.4031.30%
[mtg_card]Wrath of God[/mtg_card]  7th EditionX$131.99$101.7029.80%
[mtg_card]Cultural Exchange[/mtg_card]  OdysseyX$17.99$14.0028.50%
[mtg_card]Psionic Blast[/mtg_card]  Magic Player Rewards$2.68$2.1127.00%
[mtg_card]Needle Spires[/mtg_card]  Oath of the Gatewatch$2.99$2.3925.10%
[mtg_card]Gilt-Leaf Palace[/mtg_card]  LorwynX$30.00$24.2223.90%
[mtg_card]Mishra's Bauble[/mtg_card]  ColdsnapX$60.90$49.7022.50%
[mtg_card]Scrapheap Scrounger[/mtg_card]  Kaladesh$3.06$2.5022.40%
[mtg_card]Tainted Isle[/mtg_card]  Planechase 2012$3.37$2.8020.40%


Weekly Fallers

[mtg_card]Goblin King[/mtg_card]  8th EditionX$11.50$16.00-28.10%
[mtg_card]Prismatic Omen[/mtg_card]  ShadowmoorX$27.67$36.75-24.70%
[mtg_card]Living Plane[/mtg_card]  Legends$50.17$66.44-24.50%
[mtg_card]Diabolic Intent[/mtg_card]  PlaneshiftX$49.89$64.92-23.20%
[mtg_card]Brushland[/mtg_card]  9th Edition$14.44$18.49-21.90%
[mtg_card]Braids, Conjurer Adept[/mtg_card]  Planar ChaosX$11.22$14.29-21.50%
[mtg_card]Platinum Emperion[/mtg_card]  Scars of Mirrodin$18.97$24.00-21.00%

(*) - Reserve list

Kaladesh Inventions Are Pummeling Prices

One of the more talked about topics recently is the effect of the Masterpiece Series on Kaladesh. I can't recall much of this being discussed when Battle for Zendikar was being release with Expeditions. Many dealers and MTGFinance gurus have brought up that they think Inventions are severely lowering the price of cards from Kaladesh. To summarize their argument, this a major set release for Wizards. They are going to print as much of this set as needed to keep it in stock for dealer. And the price of these boxes will never change for the major dealers (My understanding is it's around $70-$80 a box). At a player level, the box is resold at around $90-$100 a box. But, if the average value of the product is over $100, than the store has no reason to sell boxes. The profit in opening the box and selling the individual product is outright better. So Wizards does everything within their power (typically this means more printings) to keep the value of a box at around $90-$95. It doesn't always work out this way (See Innistrad), but they make the effort to make it so. The issue with Battle for Zendikar, Oath of the Gatewatch, and Kaladesh, is that the value of the Expeditions/Masterpiece Series cut into the prices of the box.

For a more math-y approach to this explanation, suppose every box has $100 of product inside. This is something Wizards can physically control with how many boxes they print, so it isn't a unrealistic starting point. Now, the odds of finding a Masterpiece Series card in a box is 1:4, as the odds of finding one in a pack is 1:144 and a box has 36 packs. The average value of a Masterpiece Series card currently is $70. That means that these cards represent $17.50 of the value of every box. EVERY BOX. Only $82.50 goes to the set itself. If you go back to the main point of the Masterpiece Series from Wizards was to "Keep Standard Accessible." The main way this is done is by cutting into the value of all the cards in the set by adding an uber rare card that isn't needed for play in Standard.

If you look at the top current prices of cards int he set, you aren't going to see much of a difference between this set and what you normal see in a new set. But as you go on, you start to notice the the drop off from the $5-$10 range goes to $2 comes a bit more sooner than even I am use to. And so, the talk is that volatility of these cards is quite high. We really have already seen that with [mtg_card]Smuggler's Copter[/mtg_card]. On release, this card was around $2. Now it's around $20. This week, three cards that don't even see play in Standard spiked very hard. [mtg_card]Electrostatic Pummeler[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Metallurgic Summonings[/mtg_card], and [mtg_card]Panharmonicon[/mtg_card] all jumped over $5 despite really only being relevant in Commander (Metallurgic Summonings and Panharmonicon) or just being a random buyout (Electrostatic Pummeler). I suspect we could see more buyouts that don't really make any sense over the next few months. Just remember, most of the money from this set is going to be locked up in the Masterpiece Series for a long time. Expecting to get long term gains from this set could be quite tricky.

Leovold is Borked and So is Conspiracy: Take the Crown

Anyone play with [mtg_card]Leovold, Emissary of Trest[/mtg_card] in Commander? He's nuts. I've seen about 5-6 Legacy decks running him as well. My opinion through is that this price is really a buyout that became a legit price. Really he is becoming more in line with his foil price which had hit 10x the average price at one point. This card looks to be the most expensive card in the set. Which is mildly impressive considering the set has [mtg_card]Show and Tell[/mtg_card], two new Planeswalkers, [mtg_card]Inquisition of Kozilek[/mtg_card], and [mtg_card]Berserk[/mtg_card]. There is alot of money in this set people. If you spot a box sitting on a shelf at under $100, you might want to think about picking it up. It will probably hold it's value better than Kaladesh for the reasons stated in the last section.