Magic Monies - 7/25/16

First weekend of a legal Eldritch Moon in Standard everybody! Means I have to talk a long time about cards that have completely broken all the things! Or not, based on the price increases. I guess I’ll just explain how TCGPlayer’s Market Price makes my job way easier.

TCGPlayer’s Market Price and Why It’s Important

So one of the more recent phenomena in the MTG market has been abuse of TCGPlayer’s low and median price. While it’s not a good standard for trades, it has often been seen as a standard for dollar amounts on cards. But with low supply cards (Read: Reserve list) there could be limited stock for cards on TCGPlayer. Someone can easily buy 5-6 copies from the dealers then repost their own copies at obscene prices. This would increase the median price by however much they feel like. Since many sites, such as where I pull my data, use TCGPlayer’s price API, price gouging can quickly reverberate through the community.

This is where TCGPlayer’s Market Price comes into play. Market Price calculates the price buyers have been paying for cards. So in this case, the Market Price is the price the customers pay for the card instead of the price dealers have tagged to the card. Now, when a card’s price spikes up due to low stock buyouts, it will be readily identifiable if demand for the new price is there. Anytime a card makes a significant jump I can’t explain, Market Price will be the first thing I look at to determine if the demand is real.

Still Talking About Reserve List Cards

Five cards on the Reserve List that I sadly still have to talk about. The big two are [mtg_card]Timmerian Fiends[/mtg_card] and [mtg_card]Soldevi Excavations[/mtg_card]. I’ll give you a moment to look over Timmerian Fiends and try to figure out that card. It’s ok, I’ll wait… Done? Probably not. It’s an Ante card. I didn’t expect you to get it. Being an Ante card means the following: a) No one knows how to play it and b) People will stand up and leave the table when you do. I saw this at over $300 yesterday and nearly fell out of my chair. Using our new Market Price tool, the price of this people have been buying at is $1.50. So, this means no one is buying it at $9.50. Nothing to see here. It’s a bad buyout gone even worse.

[mtg_card]Soldevi Excavations[/mtg_card] is a more interesting card. This actually does see a little play in Commander. I think some of the more well appreciated speculators have bought into a few.  In my opinion, there is even room for this to grow. There are a few copies on TCGPlayer, but not many in lightly played condition or better; most are heavily played condition. Market Price has it at $1.60. If I randomly pull one out of a binder or bulk box at my local games store, I’d probably drop up to $2-$3 on it.

Last week we had talked about these three: [mtg_card]Tolarian Academy[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Power Artifact[/mtg_card], and [mtg_card]Yavimaya Hollow[/mtg_card]. Tolarian Academy is perhaps the most broken card ever printed. Play it and people leave. It’s banned at kitchen table Magic, that’s how broken it is. Has little room for growth. Market Price has it at under $30. Don’t see the demand there. Power Artifact is in the same boat. Yavimaya Hollow gets some Commander play. That shows in that the Market Price is much closer to the current price at $18.50.

Other Notes

I expected to see a bunch of Standard cards here with first batch of tournaments for Eldritch Moon, but not much movement on that front. Particularly interesting considering how much play [mtg_card]Spell Queller[/mtg_card] has gotten. There was some hype going into this week about how good the card was, and in my opinion it proved it wasn’t just hype with good results in Standard and Modern.

[mtg_card]Dakmor Salvage[/mtg_card] is having its day in the sun. Modern Dredge is really good. It’s become a stupid popular deck that has regular T3 kills. It should turn up in tomorrow’s Decks of the Week should someone remember to write it. The deck has had some major changes in the past few months. This is a deck I would look to possible see some bannings if it continues to gain in popularity and keep getting reliable T3 kills.

[mtg_card]Counterbalance[/mtg_card] had a big ole’ spike. To summarize a quote I read on the MTGFinance subreddit, the only cards in all the versions of Legacy Miracles are [mtg_card]Brainstorm[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Tundra[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Force of Will[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Sensei’s Divining Top[/mtg_card], and Counterbalance. Four of these cards were reprinted in Eternal Masters and one cannot be reprinted. Guess which one was left out. Miracles is the most popular deck in Legacy. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon.

The fallers list is fairly large this week. This is due to the typical falls on cards people speculated hard on in the prerelease, only to watch them tank.

Weekly Risers

[mtg_card]Timmerian Fiends[/mtg_card] (*)  Homelands$9.47$0.402267.50%
[mtg_card]Soldevi Excavations[/mtg_card] (*)  Alliances$2.99$1.06182.10%
[mtg_card]Statecraft[/mtg_card]  Mercadian Masques$2.83$1.4693.80%
[mtg_card]Brushland[/mtg_card]  10th Edition$18.93$10.0089.30%
[mtg_card]Counterbalance[/mtg_card]  Coldsnap$29.95$16.5980.50%
[mtg_card]Dakmor Salvage[/mtg_card]  Future Sightx$14.23$8.0975.90%
[mtg_card]Dakmor Salvage[/mtg_card]  Future Sight$2.56$1.4675.30%
[mtg_card]Tolarian Academy[/mtg_card] (*)  Urza's Saga$49.95$32.0855.70%
[mtg_card]Power Artifact[/mtg_card] (*)  Antiquities$42.00$27.2254.30%
[mtg_card]Yavimaya Hollow[/mtg_card] (*)  Urza's Destiny$22.95$15.2650.40%
[mtg_card]Matter Reshaper[/mtg_card]  Oath of the Gatewatch$3.95$2.6946.80%
[mtg_card]Desert Twister[/mtg_card]  Arabian Nights$16.34$11.1946.00%
[mtg_card]Tetravus[/mtg_card]  Antiquities$28.00$20.0040.00%
[mtg_card]Scrying Sheets[/mtg_card]  Coldsnapx$32.99$23.7339.00%
[mtg_card]Kamahl, Fist of Krosa[/mtg_card]  Onslaughtx$21.99$16.0437.10%
[mtg_card]Shielded by Faith[/mtg_card]  Commander 2015$2.74$2.0335.00%
[mtg_card]Gleeful Sabotage[/mtg_card]  Shadowmoorx$6.49$4.8533.80%
[mtg_card]Doomed Necromancer[/mtg_card]  Onslaughtx$9.99$7.6231.10%
[mtg_card]Flickerwisp[/mtg_card]  Eventidex$16.59$12.8029.60%
[mtg_card]Greater Gargadon[/mtg_card]  Time Spiralx$12.32$9.5229.40%
[mtg_card]Joiner Adept[/mtg_card]  10th Editionx$12.99$10.1228.40%
[mtg_card]Brushland[/mtg_card]  9th Edition$10.00$7.8527.40%
[mtg_card]Joiner Adept[/mtg_card]  Fifth Dawnx$5.98$4.7426.20%
[mtg_card]Strip Mine[/mtg_card] [Tower]  Antiquities$22.27$17.7525.50%
[mtg_card]Spell Snare[/mtg_card]  Dissensionx$27.95$22.4624.40%
[mtg_card]Elephant Graveyard[/mtg_card] (*)  Arabian Nights$49.49$39.8224.30%
[mtg_card]Mesmeric Orb[/mtg_card]  Mirrodinx$29.99$24.2123.90%
[mtg_card]Wall of Shards[/mtg_card]  Coldsnapx$9.49$7.6923.40%
[mtg_card]Ensnaring Bridge[/mtg_card]  8th Editionx$194.98$158.1923.30%
[mtg_card]Wheel of Fortune[/mtg_card] (*)  Revised Edition$23.39$19.1222.30%
[mtg_card]Opposition[/mtg_card]  Urza's Destinyx$32.99$27.0422.00%
[mtg_card]Time Elemental[/mtg_card]  Legends$17.14$14.0721.80%
[mtg_card]Anger of the Gods[/mtg_card]  Therosx$10.40$8.5421.80%
[mtg_card]Eternal Witness[/mtg_card]  Fifth Dawnx$26.96$22.3620.60%

Weekly Fallers

[mtg_card]Ishkanah, Grafwidow[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$21.87$51.49-57.50%
[mtg_card]Mausoleum Wanderer[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$7.99$13.38-40.30%
[mtg_card]Cryptbreaker[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$5.97$9.11-34.50%
[mtg_card]Sulfurous Springs[/mtg_card]  7th Editionx$29.20$44.28-34.10%
[mtg_card]Thalia, Heretic Cathar[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$19.45$28.83-32.50%
[mtg_card]Tree of Perdition[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$14.10$20.59-31.50%
[mtg_card]Liliana, the Last Hope[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$52.42$76.12-31.10%
[mtg_card]Ishkanah, Grafwidow[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$9.00$13.00-30.80%
[mtg_card]Grim Flayer[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$18.99$27.39-30.70%
[mtg_card]Tamiyo, Field Researcher[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$49.97$71.97-30.60%
[mtg_card]Deploy the Gatewatch[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$10.80$15.44-30.10%
[mtg_card]Mirrorwing Dragon[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$10.99$15.44-28.80%
[mtg_card]Spell Queller[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$22.24$30.89-28.00%
[mtg_card]Splendid Reclamation[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$11.08$14.99-26.10%
[mtg_card]Magma Sliver[/mtg_card]  Legionsx$15.00$19.99-25.00%
[mtg_card]Gravity Sphere[/mtg_card] (*)  Legends$37.99$50.14-24.20%
[mtg_card]Herald of Leshrac[/mtg_card]  Coldsnapx$7.61$9.89-23.10%
[mtg_card]Eldritch Evolution[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$6.71$8.60-22.00%
[mtg_card]Allosaurus Rider[/mtg_card]  Duel Decks: Anthology$5.99$7.63-21.50%
[mtg_card]Emrakul, the Promised End[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$47.33$59.99-21.10%
[mtg_card]Elder Deep-Fiend[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$9.63$12.12-20.50%
[mtg_card]Elder Deep-Fiend[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$5.53$6.95-20.40%
[mtg_card]Tree of Perdition[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$4.75$5.95-20.20%
[mtg_card]Ulrich of the Krallenhorde[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$14.35$17.99-20.20%
[mtg_card]Rotlung Reanimator[/mtg_card]  Onslaughtx$4.61$5.78-20.20%
[mtg_card]Leyline of the Void [/mtg_card]  Magic 2011 (M11)x$26.88$33.64-20.10%
[mtg_card]Candelabra of Tawnos[/mtg_card] (*)  Antiquities$539.99$675.00-20.00%
[mtg_card]Hide // Seek[/mtg_card]  Dissensionx$5.38$6.68-19.50%
[mtg_card]Juzám Djinn[/mtg_card] (*)  Arabian Nights$584.99$726.00-19.40%
[mtg_card]Eldritch Evolution[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$21.97$26.87-18.20%
[mtg_card]Junún Efreet[/mtg_card]  Arabian Nights$8.03$9.80-18.10%
[mtg_card]Gisela, the Broken Blade[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$56.49$68.99-18.10%
[mtg_card]Time Stretch[/mtg_card]  10th Editionx$28.80$34.97-17.60%
[mtg_card]Grim Flayer[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$9.04$10.96-17.50%
[mtg_card]Decimator of the Provinces[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$14.21$17.23-17.50%
[mtg_card]Gisa and Geralf[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$12.08$14.49-16.60%
[mtg_card]Selfless Spirit[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$8.00$9.52-16.00%
[mtg_card]Gisela, the Broken Blade[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$21.08$24.94-15.50%
[mtg_card]Thalia, Heretic Cathar[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$6.77$7.95-14.80%
[mtg_card]Wrexial, the Risen Deep[/mtg_card]  Worldwakex$25.99$30.49-14.80%
[mtg_card]Tamiyo, Field Researcher[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$19.74$23.12-14.60%
[mtg_card]Nahiri's Wrath[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moonx$9.68$11.32-14.50%
[mtg_card]Nimbus Maze[/mtg_card]  Future Sight$29.95$35.00-14.40%
[mtg_card]Fulminator Mage[/mtg_card]  Shadowmoorx$67.73$78.90-14.20%
[mtg_card]Mausoleum Wanderer[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$4.22$4.91-14.10%
[mtg_card]Static Orb[/mtg_card]  7th Edition$4.03$4.69-14.10%
[mtg_card]River of Tears[/mtg_card]  Future Sight$12.00$13.95-14.00%
[mtg_card]Grimgrin, Corpse-Born[/mtg_card]  Innistradx$7.81$9.01-13.30%
[mtg_card]Dragonlord Ojutai[/mtg_card]  Dragons of Tarkir$7.80$8.99-13.20%
[mtg_card]Aladdin's Lamp[/mtg_card]  Arabian Nights$7.47$8.58-12.90%
[mtg_card]Strip Mine[/mtg_card] [Even Horizon]  Antiquities$13.33$15.29-12.80%
[mtg_card]Parallax Wave[/mtg_card]  Nemesisx$16.88$19.27-12.40%
[mtg_card]Squee, Goblin Nabob[/mtg_card]  Mercadian Masquesx$29.98$34.19-12.30%
[mtg_card]Knight of the White Orchid[/mtg_card]  Shards of Alarax$8.20$9.34-12.20%
[mtg_card]Pithing Needle[/mtg_card]  Saviors of Kamigawax$39.48$44.98-12.20%
[mtg_card]Allosaurus Rider[/mtg_card]  Coldsnapx$11.40$12.95-12.00%
[mtg_card]Lord of the Undead[/mtg_card]  9th Editionx$13.58$15.32-11.40%
[mtg_card]Karplusan Forest[/mtg_card]  9th Editionx$27.49$30.95-11.20%
[mtg_card]Gisa and Geralf[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$4.00$4.50-11.10%
[mtg_card]Talisman of Progress[/mtg_card]  Mirrodinx$12.19$13.71-11.10%
[mtg_card]Emrakul, the Promised End[/mtg_card]  Eldritch Moon$14.07$15.73-10.60%
[mtg_card]Pyromancer's Goggles[/mtg_card]  Magic Originsx$13.81$15.39-10.30%
[mtg_card]Seachrome Coast[/mtg_card]  Scars of Mirrodinx$15.00$16.71-10.20%
[mtg_card]Silvergill Adept[/mtg_card]  Lorwynx$18.95$21.09-10.20%
[mtg_card]Statecraft[/mtg_card]  Mercadian Masquesx$17.98$20.00-10.10%

(*) - Reserve List