Magic Monies - 5/30/16

Sorry for the skip last week. But this week we get to talk about the effect of Eternal Masters on card price! Yeeh!

Eternal Masters Notes:

To start, the announcement of all the spoilers for Eternal Masters has yet to make significant dents on any prices. It no doubt will drop some prices, but as of now nothing on the charts. I do expect a few card to get crushed, and others, not so much. Typically in these situations, you look for cards that's price doesn't connect to how much play it gets. So a card like [mtg_card]Force of Will[/mtg_card], which gets played in a majority of Legacy decks, probably won't see a major price hit. But a card like [mtg_card]Natural Order[/mtg_card] or [mtg_card]Worldgorger Dragon[/mtg_card], probably will drop very little.

So card's I expect to see drops on would be:

  • [mtg_card]Argothian Enchantress[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Worldgorger Dragon[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Natural Order[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Entomb[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Heritage Druid[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Sylvan Library[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Animate Dead[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Hymn to Tourach[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Cabal Therapy[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Price of Progress[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Dack Fayden[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Maelstrom Wanderer[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Vindicate[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Shardless Agent[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Deathrite Shaman[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Baleful Strix[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Duplicant[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Isochron Scepter[/mtg_card]

I expect [mtg_card]Entomb[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Cabal Therapy[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Vindicate[/mtg_card], and [mtg_card]Duplicant[/mtg_card] to take fairly sizeable hits. All of them are priced fairly high and get very little play for their current price. This is the first significant reprint for all three cards. They have been reprinted in prebuilt decks like Commander and Archenemy, but never a full set release. In Vindicate's case, it get play in zero decks and has never been reprinted. Usually not a good sign for a card's price. Now some of these there could be an argument for very minor drops if any drops at all. [mtg_card]Maelstrom Wanderer[/mtg_card] is a huge Commander card that get zero play in competitive constructive formats. I know Commander fans have been begging for a reprint to drive down costs, and this should make a decent dent to that.

Most of the mythics may not see a big drop depending on print run size, so putting them in this list may be wrong. [mtg_card]Dack Fayden[/mtg_card] in particular is an iffy pick. He gets some play in Legacy and a great deal of play in Vintage (A format I do not rate high on effecting prices). [mtg_card]Shardless Agent[/mtg_card] and [mtg_card]Baleful Strix[/mtg_card] may get too much play to have their price significantly impacted. While I expect a price dip, don't be surprised if they don't drop.

Cards I don't expect significant change on:

  • [mtg_card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Sneak Attack[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Force of Will[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Toxic Deluge[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Young Pyromancer[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Chrome Mox[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Sensei's Divining Top[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Karakas[/mtg_card]

  • [mtg_card]Wasteland[/mtg_card]

Firm choices for not expecting a change are [mtg_card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/mtg_card] and [mtg_card]Force of Will[/mtg_card]. Both come in at a mythic slot and get tons of play in Legacy. I don't expect hits here to price. [mtg_card]Karakas[/mtg_card] is kinda in the same boat, but the the major difference there is that Karakas comes from the Legends set. That set had a notorious small print run. It is possible that Eternal Masters could nearly double the amount the copies on the market having a significant impact on price. I'm mostly basing my prognostication on the amount of play it gets, so I could be wildly off here and Karakas could tank.

The other two worth a discussion is[mtg_card] Sensei's Divining Top[/mtg_card] and [mtg_card]Wasteland[/mtg_card]. Both haven't had a significant reprint run. I suspect they both get enough play that their price won't tank. But both also have a fairly inflated price. Makes it possible they could see a hit.

I think the biggest thing to take from this reprint if you want to make a quick buck, is that [mtg_card]Rishadan Port[/mtg_card] was not reprinted but [mtg_card]Wasteland[/mtg_card] was. The card as already seen a $20 increase and I could see it going even higher. Reprinting Wasteland will make everyone want to play a Death & Taxes deck, but will have to burn money on the Rishadan Ports to make the deck.

The other card that didn't make the list that I totally expected was [mtg_card]Liliana of the Veil[/mtg_card]. The card was already significantly inflated in price, and I expected a reprint to kill that price. We may not have gotten the reprint, but I suspect most speculators to be hesitant to invest into it. Particularly since we are still in a Innistrad block and there is an expectation of a Liliana to appear in the set. Wizards may be crazy enough to reprint Liliana of the Veil there.

Other Notes:

So the big winner of the week was [mtg_card]Shelldock Isle[/mtg_card] and [mtg_card]Mesmeric Orb[/mtg_card]. Spikes in these was caused by a solid placing of a UB Mill deck that took a decent showing a GP Los Angeles. Remember kids, every time someone plays an [mtg_card]Ensnaring Bridge[/mtg_card], a kitten dies. Anyway, Shelldock Isle was completely bought out as result. I honestly doubt that the demand is there to keep either card at that price. But speculators are often willing to hold price on mill cards despite lack of demand. Just look a [mtg_card]Glimpse the Unthinkable[/mtg_card] if you need more evidence.

The other major jump comes from [mtg_card]Golgari Grave-Troll[/mtg_card], which has nearly doubled over the past week. The card get much more play now that Dredge has become a high tier deck. I'd look for this deck to get more play peoople begin to understand how fast it is.

[mtg_card]Grafdigger's Cage[/mtg_card] continues it's rise of the past month seeing it's become the premier hate card for graveyard, [mtg_card]Chord of Calling[/mtg_card], and [mtg_card]Collected Company[/mtg_card] strategies.

Weekly Highs

[mtg_card]Shelldock Isle[/mtg_card]$8.00$2.84181.70%
[mtg_card]JunĂșn Efreet[/mtg_card] (Arabian Nights)$9.49$5.0787.20%
[mtg_card]Golgari Grave-Troll[/mtg_card] (Ravnica)$9.99$5.6576.80%
[mtg_card]Greater Gargadon[/mtg_card] (Modern Masters)$3.80$2.2072.70%
[mtg_card]City of Brass[/mtg_card] (Arabian Nights)$150.00$101.5147.80%
[mtg_card]Killer Bees[/mtg_card] (Legends)$20.00$13.7745.20%
[mtg_card]Mesmeric Orb[/mtg_card]$11.50$8.0642.70%
[mtg_card]Planar Gate[/mtg_card] (*)$16.15$11.9834.80%
[mtg_card]Time Elemental[/mtg_card] (Legends)$15.00$11.2533.30%
[mtg_card]Grand Architect[/mtg_card]$2.18$1.6432.90%
[mtg_card]Slate of Ancestry[/mtg_card] (DD: Anthology)$2.98$2.2532.40%
[mtg_card]Hyena Umbra[/mtg_card] (Planechase 2012)$3.83$3.0724.80%
[mtg_card]Lightning Helix[/mtg_card] (Promo)$17.79$14.5422.40%
[mtg_card]Grafdigger's Cage[/mtg_card]$10.03$8.2022.30%

Weekly Lows

No major lows

(*) - Designates Reserve List