Magic Monies - 5/16/16

Slow week in Magic Monies, but still some good talking points. We’ve seen some stability in the market over the past few weeks, so I’ll use the calming time to start talking about some expectations….nevermind. I have to talk more about [mtg_card]Nahiri, the Harbinger[/mtg_card]. Because it’s still causing insanity amongst the speculators.


[mtg_card]Orzhov Pontiff[/mtg_card] is the big winner this week. Since the beginning of this year, it has tripled in price and nearly doubled in the past week. This is a card with only one printing in a low print set. Typically this is a sign for a card that could be worth something. The main shot against this is that the card doesn’t get very much play. It tends to be a singleton in Project Melira and the occasional Kiki Chord decks in Modern. It’s not the amount of play I typically want in card I look to invest into. This card spiked similarly around January 2015, as people were trying to build up their decks for the upcoming Modern season. Until this card gets a reprint, I expect this card to do similar jumps in the future as formats rotate in and out of season.

Now the real question, will it get a reprint? Maybe it will, maybe it won't. The card has a really awkward and odd effect in Haunt, which Wizards finds to be clunky and complex. Such cards typically are avoided for reprints or brought back into more current sets (See the history of "Bands with others"). So it could see a reprint, but I have my doubts. If it does see a reprint, there are few chances to do so this year. If [mtg_card]Orzhov Pontiff[/mtg_card] isn’t in Eternal Masters, it would have to wait until the next Modern Masters set. It could be in Conspiracy 2, but I doubt it since the card is so tied to the Ravinca plane. For those waiting for Commander 2016, it shouldn’t be in that either. Mostly because it looks like Commander 2016 will be two color ally decks, which WB isn’t.

(Ninja Edit: Wizards just revealed today that that Commander 2016 will have 4C Commanders. The likely means the decks will be 4C. They don't have to be, but I can't imagine they won't be. It opens the possibility of a reprint, but I still suspect Eternal and Modern Masters are more likely to reprint [mtg_card]Orzhov Pontiff[/mtg_card].)

I can’t put my finger on [mtg_card]Phyrexian Devourer[/mtg_card]’s rise. It’s a reserve list card, which have all been on the fritz the past few months with the announcement of Eternal Masters. I can’t really give you a reason for why this has hit the price it has hit.

Same for [mtg_card]Mana Vault[/mtg_card]. Mana Vault has been banned for about ever in nearly all competitive formats. It is one of the more popular cards in Vintage where it gets quite a bit of play across a number of decks in that format. But calling an increase in Vintage play isn’t a real thing I will say. Every person I know who plays Vintage plays proxies. So I guess it’s going up because of Commander play? Question mark? I got nothing.

[mtg_card]Lake of the Dead[/mtg_card] however, is a bit more explainable. To start with, it’s a really cool card. Both in art and design. It’s a reserve list card that is required in [mtg_card]The Gitrog Monster[/mtg_card] deck for Commander. People love The Gitrog Monster in Commander; it’s easily the most popular deck in that format right now. Ceiling is probably pretty low though. Most will look for the next cool Commander deck once the next set comes out. I’d sell before the next set comes out. But for now ride the high as far as it goes.

Lastly, I get to talk about [mtg_card]Nahiri, the Harbinger[/mtg_card] again. After Jeff Hoogland blew up the card a week and half ago, I jumped on the train at an admittingly late $20 seeing that the card likely hadn’t hit its ceiling yet. Turns out I was right. Hoogland’s deck won a SCG Modern Open over the weekend, fueling another $10 rise to Nahiri. I can’t praise this card enough at this point. This card is changing the way people are building Modern decks. It’s seeing more and more play in Standard. What’s really scary is that no one has a clue what the ceiling is. Some (crazy) people are calling this the new [mtg_card]Jace, The Mind Sculptor[/mtg_card]. I won’t go that far, but it’s easily in my top 5 planeswalkers ever printed. Below [mtg_card]Liliana of the Veil[/mtg_card], but higher than [mtg_card]Elspeth, Knight-Errant[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Elspeth, Sun’s Champion[/mtg_card], and [mtg_card]Gideon Jura[/mtg_card]. Probably just below or around [mtg_card]Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy[/mtg_card] in power level. This card is good and underestimate its ceiling at your own risk, because I have no idea where that is.

Cheap Buys

I want to do a quick changeup. We are coming close to spoiler season for the next set, which typically will cause some violent changes in the market. Keep a look out for cheap copies of [mtg_card]Olivia, Mobilized for War[/mtg_card], [mtg_card]Relentless Dead[/mtg_card], and [mtg_card]The Gitrog Monster[/mtg_card]. All three have been dropping like a tank due to lack of play. Well, Olivia and Relentless Dead for sure. I have no idea why The Gitrog Monster is so low. Gets some play in just outside the top 8 decks and is the most popular Commander right now. But back on point. All are well below the prices they started at earlier this year. I’ve already bought my set of Relentless Dead. The card is an easy pick for something that is likely to explode next set. I even think there might be a Modern deck out there for it. If you plan on playing these cards soon, buy them before spoiler season.

Weekly Highs

[mtg_card]Orzhov Pontiff[/mtg_card]$14.71$8.4574.10%
[mtg_card]Phyrexian Devourer[/mtg_card] (*)$7.99$4.6272.90%
[mtg_card]Lake of the Dead[/mtg_card] (*)$13.84$8.4963.00%
[mtg_card]Nahiri, the Harbinger[/mtg_card]$35.50$22.0061.40%
[mtg_card]Disenchant[/mtg_card] (Magic Player Rewards)$5.43$3.6548.80%
[mtg_card]Mana Vault[/mtg_card]$14.25$10.7532.60%
[mtg_card]Constant Mists[/mtg_card]$3.50$2.7228.70%
[mtg_card]Glittering Wish[/mtg_card]$12.04$9.4926.90%
[mtg_card]Dimir Signet[/mtg_card] (Commander)$2.49$2.0620.90%
[mtg_card]Spirit Link[/mtg_card] (Legends)$2.50$2.0720.80%

Weekly Lows

[mtg_card]Time Elemental[/mtg_card] (Legends)$11.30$15.00-24.70%

(*) - Designates Reserve List